November 1st, 2024
1. Origination data from S&P indicates that loan extensions initiated in 2022 are contributing to a maturity wall projected to approach $1 trillion next year, peaking in 2027 with an additional $26 billion added during that period. While liquidity is returning to the commercial real estate (CRE) market—though less so in the office sector—this presents opportunities for institutions looking to reduce their exposure to CRE or specific asset classes to balance their portfolios.
2. Commercial real estate lenders that have offered loan extensions to avoid losses from declining property values and high interest rates may lead to greater financial pressure on banks, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As valuations continue to fall, particularly in the office sector, lenders are starting to reassess risks and might adopt stricter measures to manage their portfolios and address the looming challenges.
3. Banks without aggressive CRE credit strategies over the past several years are in a position to go on the offensive going into 2025, although they almost universally require established deposit relationships, and non-recourse loans remain rare unless supported by other factors. Transactional relationships are for the most part a non-starter for regional and community banks. Banks increased their origination of commercial mortgages in Q2 and Q3 yet when compared with pre-Covid levels, lending is still down 58%. (Retail 78%, Office 65%, Multifamily 61%)
4. As this situation unfolds, we have observed a sizable uptick in the yields on 10-year (Currently 4.29%) and 5-year Treasuries (Currently 4.14%) over the past few weeks, which has created some investor hesitation and is likely affecting short-term deal flow. This trend is reflected in the recent decline in Fannie Mae's new issue volume.
5. As discussed in a new Heitman report, rising insurance costs in the real estate sector are driven by inflation, reinsurance expenses, regulatory constraints, and increasing weather-related claims, posing affordability challenges for investors. To manage these costs, many are adopting strategies like high deductible policies and self-insurance, while still finding coverage available. Investors are increasingly assessing climate risk exposure and the potential impacts on markets, particularly concerning single-family homeowners and government-backed insurance programs.
6. HUD has issued draft program changes reducing DSCR to 1.15x and increasing the LTV to 87% for market rate refinances (80% for cash out).
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7. Recent securitizations revealed that owners are still showing a preference for shorter-term, fixed-rate mortgages, nearly 71% of CMBS issuance this year was five-year loans. By comparison, for all of 2023 that percentage was 42%. There was a significant increase in securitizations in Q3 with average rates trending down and LTV trending up. See below for rough sizings across asset classes.
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